Pennsylvania, Michigan Crucial to fall election

FOX News.com
We Report. You Decide.
SEARCH
UREPORT
Send us your video,
photos and news
On FOX News CHANNEL:
View Schedule

* Home
* U.S.
* World
* Politics
* Business
* Health
* SciTech
* Entertainment
* Video
* Opinion
* uReport
* Sports
* Weather

* RADIO
* MOBILE
* FOX & Friends
* Live Desk
* Studio B
* Your World
* Special Report
* FOX Report
* O'Reilly Factor
* Hannity & Colmes
* On the Record
* FNC iMag
* FOX Fan

Politics

* Politics Home
* FOX Polls
* America's Election HQ
* Eye on the Issues
* Special Report
* Fox News Sunday
* Executive Branch
* U.S. Senate
* House of Representatives
* Supreme Court
* State & Local Government
* U.S. Military
* NEWS ARCHIVE
* HOT TOPICS
o FOX News Election Coverage
o Celebrity Gossip
o FOX Movietone News
* SECTION MAP

Send news tip to FOXNews.com
SUBMIT
FOXNEWS.COM HOME > POLITICS
Pennsylvania, Michigan crucial to fall election

Saturday, August 30, 2008

By CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press Writer

* E-Mail
* Print

* Share:
o Digg
o Facebook
o StumbleUpon
o Post to MySpace!
o
o

BEAVER, Pa. — Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania and Michigan.

There are battleground states in the presidential election, and then there are these two, looming larger than most others because they offer such a rich opportunity for Republican John McCain and potential peril for Democrat Barack Obama.

What worries Obama, and gives McCain hope, is that both states have hundreds of thousands of white, mostly working-class Democrats who seem wary of Obama. In the Pennsylvania primary they gave Hillary Rodham Clinton a big win over Obama, and now McCain is wooing them hard.

"I need Pennsylvania," Obama told a crowd of several thousand at an outdoor rally in Beaver on Friday night. "I need Beaver, Pennsylvania. I need you to stand up beside me and say now is the time to bring about change in America."

In the crowd, Kim Stelmach of Pittsburgh cheered, and fretted a bit. Despite having young twins at home, she finds time to volunteer for Obama, and is well aware that Pennsylvania is a must-win state.

"I'm extremely nervous," she said of Obama's standing with white working-class Democrats. "That's why I'm volunteering."

Pennsylvania and Michigan have thousands of white working-class voters who call themselves Democrats but sometimes vote Republican.

If McCain carries either state, he could lose several states that President Bush won and still claim the White House. For Obama, a loss in either would put him in a deep hole, forcing him to win numerous states that have voted Republican in recent elections to have any hope of prevailing on Nov. 4.

Note: Politics has a great effect on the economy.

It's no coincidence that Obama and his running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, made Pennsylvania their first stop Friday after leaving their party's convention in Denver, with several Michigan stops scheduled for Sunday and Monday. Their campaign released a new TV ad for northeastern Pennsylvania noting that Biden was born in Scranton.

McCain and his new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, campaigned Saturday in Pittsburgh and Washington, Pa., and they have promised to visit both states repeatedly.

There are plenty of other vigorously contested states: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Virginia, to name a few. But Michigan and Pennsylvania are different.

John Kerry and Al Gore carried both in their losing campaigns in 2000 and 2004. So they form an almost must-win minimum for Obama. He would start with the base those two men had, and then try to pick up enough Bush-carried states to put him over the top.

They're being told by Obama's people that their personal and political interests should trump any qualms about voting for a black man in his first Senate term.

Polls show Obama slightly ahead in both states, but McCain may be within striking distance.

To be elected, Obama must win 18 more electoral votes than Kerry did four years ago. If he loses Pennsylvania, his deficit jumps to 39 electoral votes. If he loses Michigan instead, the gap is 35.

Those are big numbers, because the Bush-won states that look most promising for Obama tend to be small, with few electoral votes.

The possibilities and math can get complicated.

Suppose Obama carried every state that Kerry did, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, and then added Bush's states of Iowa and New Mexico, or Iowa and Nevada, all prime targets this year. He'd still lose to McCain.

But if he grabbed one more state that Kerry lost _ Colorado, for instance _ then he would be president.

McCain, on the other hand, could lose Ohio or Florida (both won by Bush in 2000 and 2004) and essentially offset it with a win in Michigan or Pennsylvania. Swapping Florida for Michigan would cost McCain 10 net electoral votes, but he'd still win the election if all other states followed 2004 results.

Obama's challenge becomes far greater if he loses either Pennsylvania or Michigan. Even if he won all the other Kerry states from 2004 and added the Bush states of New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia _ a state with 13 electoral votes that Democrats haven't won in decades _ he would lose the election.

Michigan and Pennsylvania have been hit hard by the long decline in heavy manufacturing jobs, especially in the steel and auto industries. Obama tells workers (and unemployed people) that Republicans have abandoned them. He promises to invest in technologies that will create jobs, and to cut middle-class taxes to help families pay their bills.

McCain also promises to bring more jobs to the heartland. He places more emphasis on across-the-board tax cuts and greater flexibility in finding health insurance.

Obama did not campaign in Michigan during the primary because a Democratic Party dispute essentially negated the state's primary election. He needs to make up for lost time, says Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

He needs to "come, come, come to Michigan," she said. The state's wary voters, she said, need "to feel him, see him, touch him."

McCain, too, would love nothing better than to win them over, which could give him a victory in Michigan and a huge step toward the White House.

(This version CORRECTS in paragraph 18 the combo of states that could result in Obama loss.)

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

* E-Mail
* Print

* Share:
o Digg
o Facebook
o StumbleUpon
o Post to MySpace!
o
o

Fox News Video
Top Video
Game On

'Journal Editorial Report' breaks down issues, strategy that will define the fall campaign
Politics

* Will McCain, Palin change the GOP?
* 'Gov. Sarah Palin: An American Woman'
* GOP has their turn in the spotlight
* The media is 'down' after Palin story

ADVERTISEMENT
Republican Presidential Nomination

RCP Average: McCain +30.4%

* McCain
* 56.7%
* Huckabee
* 26.3%
* Paul
* 6.5%

Poll Details >
Democratic Presidential Nomination

RCP Average: Obama +12.2%

* Obama
* 52.8%
* Clinton
* 40.6%

Poll Details >
President Bush Job Approval

RCP Average: Spread -35.4%

* Approve
* 30.4%
* Disapprove
* 65.8%

Poll Details >
Congressional Job Approval

RCP Average: Spread -56.0%

* Approve
* 17.8%
* Disapprove
* 73.8%

Poll Details >

* Most Read
* Top Emailed
* Top Videos

* Fear Looms Over Scientist's Experiment to Uncover Secrets of 'Big Bang'
* Ike Rips Through Cuba as Dangerous Category 3 Hurricane
* Japanese Expert: North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il Died in 2003
* Girl Forced to Marry at Nine Murdered After She Sought Annulment
* Flying Fish Breaks Arkansas Teen's Jaw
* Britney Spears Returns to MTV's Video Music Awards
* Police Remove Gun From Caylee's Grandfather's Car
* Pop Tarts: Hollywood Stars React to Sarah Palin, Daughter's Pregnancy
* Tom Brady Injured in First Game of Season
* Officer, 2 Others Dead in San Francisco Bay Gunfight

* Contact Us
* Texas Man Kills Home Intruder With His Own Gun
* Family of Bobcats Moves Into Vacant California Home
* Girl Forced to Marry at Nine Murdered After She Sought Annulment
* 5-Year-Old Golfer Gets Hole-in-One on Illinois Course
* Japanese Expert: North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il Died in 2003
* Fear Looms Over Scientist's Experiment to Uncover Secrets of 'Big Bang'
* Green-Colored Polar Bears Puzzle Visitors at Japanese Zoo
* Engineering Company Creates Robotic Dog to Assist Military
* Flying Fish Breaks Arkansas Teen's Jaw

* Singer Fergie raise awareness for AIDS
* How to throw a football party
* Dealing with back-to-school anxiety
* Issues that will define the fall campaign
* Sunday's national weather forecast
* Will McCain, Palin change the GOP?
* Negative coverage helping Palin?
* The media is 'down' after Palin story

* GOP has their turn in the spotlight
* 'Gov. Sarah Palin: An American Woman'


ADVERTISEMENT
ONLY ON FOX

*
Supreme Court Scorecard
A summary of the high court's decisions on 70 cases presented during the 2007-2008 term
*
2008 Primary Schedule
A handy list of who voted when
*
Leaving Congress: The Changing Face of the 110th
Click here to see the updated list of lawmakers not returning to their seats after the 2008 elections

* U.S.
* World
* Politics
* Health
* SciTech
* Entertainment

AP Wires

* Poll: McCain takes lead from Obama
* Rice: Not wise to end Cuban economic embargo now
* McCain takes on GOP and Bush along with Obama
* Bush hosts last T-ball game of his term
* Biden says he looks forward to debate with Palin
* McCain campaign hits Albuquerque restaurant
* Obama plans extended meeting with Bill Clinton
* ABC News' Gibson lands first Palin interview
* Ailing Kennedy aims to return to Senate in January
* Palin's pastor urges flock to pray for the media
* News Archive


Marketplace

* Autos
* Mortgages

Find a Car
Find a Mortgage
Get Voicemail
Free Credit Score
Fox News Shop
Celebrity News
New Life. New Car.

SEARCH
News Alerts RSS Feeds Podcasts Make FOXNews.com Your Home Page Careers

* Home
* U.S.
* World
* Politics
* FOX News Polls
* Business
* Health
* SciTech
* Entertainment
* Video
* Opinion
* uReport
* Sports
* Weather

* Radio
* Mobile
* FOX & Friends
* Live Desk
* Studio B
* Your World
* Special Report
* FOX Report
* O'Reilly Factor
* Hannity & Colmes
* On the Record
* RedEye
* FNC iMag
* FOX Fan
* News Archive
* FOX Around The World
* Contact US
* Upgrade Central
* FAQs
* Fox News Video Archive

Advertise on Fox News Channel, FOXNews.com and FOX News Radio. Advertising Specifications (PDF). Jobs at FOX News Channel. Internships At Fox News (Deadline for summer applications: Feb. 29, 2008)

Terms of use. Privacy Statement. For FOXNews.com comments write to foxnewsonline@foxnews.com; For FOX News Channel comments write to yourcomments@foxnews.com

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. © 2008 FOX News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. All market data delayed 20 minutes.